| Class 15. Country Risk Analysis
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| Date 21/04/2012
Time 13-14:30
Auditorium
| Key points:
- Country risk analysis has well established techniques
- There are components, however, which show the need for personal judgment and research
- Country risk analysis is generally a ranking for comparative analysis of all EMEs
Learning outcomes:
- Familiarity with country risk analysis tools
- Understanding how important is personal judgment
Assignments for class 16: Valuation
# Reading:
Geert Rouwenhorst, "International Momentum Strategies" Journal of Finance 53, 1998, 267-284.
E. Fama and K. French, "Value and Growth: The International Evidence", Journal of Finance, December 1998
Emerging Market Corporate Bonds—A Scoring System, by Ed Altman
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| Class 16. Country Risk and Crises: Russia and other countries
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| Date 21/04/2012
Time 14:45-16:15
Auditorium
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Key points Russia discussion:
- Countries compared: Russia, Brazil, Turkey, China
- Why did EME emerge well from the global financial crisis?
Learning outcomes:
- Knowledge about selected EME country experiences
- Knowledge about current global financial crisis and EMEs
Assignments for class 18:
Group 1 Country Analysis Preparation: Brazil
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| Class 17. The BRICs
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| Date 23/04/2012
Time 13-14:30
Auditorium
| LULU CASE STUDY General Discussion
Key points:
- Advantages that these countries have include resources
- Financial development in BRICs is improving rapidly
Learning outcomes:
- Analysis of why the BRICs’ growth is fast paced
- Understanding of the economists’ analysis
Assignment for Class 18: Reading for all students:
Brazil under Lula: Off the Yellow-Brick Road (HBS) by Aldo Musacchio. Product number 707031-PDF-ENG HBS
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| Class 18. Country Profile: Brazil
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| Date 23/04/2012
Time 14:45-16:15
Auditorium
| Group 1 Country Presentation: Brazil
Key points:
- Role of exports in Brazil’s economic boom
- Brazil’s prospects in the post-Lula era
Learning outcomes:
Assignments for class 19: China
Project work: Preparation of Country Report Group 2: China
Reading: McEwen et al (2006) Inside the Mind of the Chinese Consumer in Harvard Business Review
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| Class 19. Country Profile: China, Taiwan
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| Date 23/04/2012
Time 16:30-18
Auditorium
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- What accounts for China’s growth?
- Will high growth rates continue in China?
- What kind of strategies are necessary to do business in China?
Learning outcomes:
- Country risk in China
- Ratings estimates
Assignments for class 21:
Group 3: Preparation of Country Report: India
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| Class 20.Country Profile: India
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| Date 25/04/2012
Time 13-14:30
Auditorium
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- What accounts for India’s growth?
- What role does the bureaucracy play in India’s growth?
- What kind of strategies are necessary to do business in India?
Learning outcomes:
- Country risk in India
- Ratings estimates
Assignments for class 20:
Group 4: Preparation of Country Report: Singapore
Manual Costells. Technopoles of the World (1993). Selected chapter for reference
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| Class 21. Country Profile: Singapore
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| Date 25/04/2012
Time 14:45-16:15
Auditorium
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Presentation questions:
- Is Singapore an Emerging Market?
- What explains the growth rate in Singapore?
- Has Singapore succeeded in stimulating a regional cluster?
Learning outcomes:
- Technopoles as Emerging Markets
- Innovation in Development
Assignment for class 22: Global Opportunities
Orit Gadiesh, Philip Leung, and Till Vestring (2007) “The Battle for China’s Good Enough Market ,” Harvard Business Review
Easterly, Chs 11 and 12
Presentation Group 5: Country Profile: Russia
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| Class 22. Summary: Global Opportunities
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| Date 25/04/2012
Time 16:30-18
Auditorium
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- Strategies that work in Emerging Markets are always changing
- They are country specific
- They require local knowledge
Learning outcomes:
- Knowledge of strategies in EME
- Skills in assessing local conditions
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